Is the Left Right on Indo-US Nuclear Deal?

For some time now, arguments and counter-arguments in favour of and against the Indo-US Nuclear deal have been appearing in the media though it never has leapt to such prominence as it has now! The reason - both the camps in India - those who argue in favour of the deal and those against it - have almost reached a point of no-return. And now, the question is whether the LEFT is RIGHT ? Let's now attempt to analyse.

Petroleum (Oil), Natural Gas, Electricity, Coal, Renewable and Alternative fuels (including Hydro-power, Solar, Wind, Geothermal, Biomass and Ethanol) are the sources of Energy apart from the Nuclear source. Statistics show that 81.7% of India's Electricity production is Fossil-fuel based and 14.5% from Hydro. India consumes 339 million short tons of Coal per year - third in the world, next only to China and the U.S.A. (Courtesy: www.nationmaster.com). Consuming just 17.8 tera-watt hours of Nuclear Energy per year, India's Nuclear Energy share is a mere 0.7%.

In India, energy is predominantly consumed by the Transportation Sector and according to International Energy Outlook released last year by Energy Information Administration of the U.S. Government, India's transportation energy use is projected to grow at 3.3% per year as against the world average of 1.7% per year. The document anticipates that India will continue to expand its public transportation networks over the projection period, allowing robust increases in both road and rail transport and resulting in a more than doubling of transportation energy use between 2004 and 2030. India launched her National Highways Development Project (NHDP) in 1998 to modernize her major highways. The first phase of the project—the “Golden Quadrilateral,” a 3,625-mile multi-lane highway system that connects Delhi, Mumbai, Chennai, and Calcutta—was completed at the end of 2006. The second phase—the North-South and East-West national highways that will connect the outermost points of the country—will comprise more than 4,200 miles of highway.

Then comes the Industrial Sector, Commercial Sector and the Residential Sector. In India, following the Transportation Sector, energy is consumed by Petro-Chemicals and Fertilisers. Only a negligent amount of Oil is used in Power Plants in India. Even according to the U.S. Government document, "Although electricity is expected to become an increasingly important component of industrial sector delivered energy demand in the non-OECD economies, oil, coal, and natural gas were the most heavily used fuels in 2004, and they are projected to remain so in 2030. Liquids use in the non-OECD industrial sector increases at a slower rate than natural gas or coal use. The continued importance of coal in the non-OECD industrial sector is largely attributable to China, which accounts for 70 percent of industrial coal use in the non-OECD economies in 2030."

It is anybody's knowledge that Nuclear source of energy cannot be consumed directly by the Transport Sector - India's predominant consuming sector! After all, Oil cannot be substituted in this sector by any other form of energy. However, it is also common knowledge that Iran-Pakistan-India Natural Gas project, if materialises, will definitely reduce, if not eliminate, the pressure on the economy due to spiralling Oil prices. Our analysis revolves around the stand of the UPA Government at the Centre vis-a-vis the Left parties that support the Government on these two major policy decisions - one, emphasis on the Nuclear deal that is projected to be save the country from all our energy-related problems; and two, lacklustre attitude in finalising the Iran Gas Project as if it were not to benefit the country's quest for energy.

It is hard to ignore the following fact sheet put forth by the Left Parties under these circumstances.

· India's growing shortage of electricity has little to do with a lack of nuclear energy but a lot to do with starving the power sector of public investments over the last two decades. In the last three Five-year plans, capacity additions has been of around 20,000 MW per Plan, less than what we had added in the 7th Plan.

· Even if the Deal is signed today, it will take about 8 years before any electricity is produced from imported reactors under the Deal

· The cost of installing nuclear power plants using imported reactors is three times that of coal-fired plants of the same size

· The cost of electricity from such plants will be more than Rs. 5.00, twice that from coal-fired plants

· The quickest and cheapest way to remove the current electricity shortages is to build coal-fired plants which take half the time required by nuclear plants

· Nuclear plants require imported uranium, which is controlled by a small international cartel. The price of uranium has gone up by five times in the last few years because of this cartel.

· Nuclear energy has an important place in India's energy option and this route needs to be kept open for the future. However, this should be based on our indigenous technology and our indigenous resources to ensure energy security.

· Even with the most optimistic nuclear scenario that the Government has projected, Nuclear energy will at best meet only 8% of our electricity demand and about 4% of our total primary energy demand. While the nuclear option should be kept open for the future, it has little importance for meeting our immediate energy needs.

The question before the people of India should, therefore, be not about the loss of face for the architects of the Nuclear deal - the Indian Prime Minister Manmohan Singh and the U.S. President George Bush, but about preserving the independence and sovereignty of the great country whose Foreign Policy has stood the test of time for its inherent non-aligned nature.